CO2 solubility and temperature change and climate

Jul 2019
I am a cycles researcher. There are cycles in climate. There are correlations between atmospheric CO2 and temperature. The connection is not as many people make out. I am not a chemist although I did some chemistry study a very long time ago. I have been researching the relationship between changes in atmospheric CO2 and changes in temperature and two things are clear.

1. Over hundreds of thousands of years (ice ages coming and going) temperature change PRECEDES atmospheric CO2 change by about 800 years. This is in the literature.

2. Over shorter periods, such as the historical record, temperature change PRECEDES atmospheric CO2 change by about 6 months. I found this from my own research and others have found the same thing.

On the face of it these findings indicate that IPCC ideas about the direction of the cause is the wrong way around. I knew that solubility of gases in water reduces with rising temperature. A quick check finds that for a 30C rise solubility halves. Could it be that changing temperature (possibly due to external factors such as the Sun) explains the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere over the last century? I should mention that there are people saying that the CO2 level fluctuated much more in the 19th century than is generally recognised and that much data that says otherwise has been ignored.

I found a diagram on NASA site showing CO2 amounts in various places and annual flows. On the page:
scroll down to find the image:

According to this the atmosphere contains about 800 gt (gigatonnes) of CO2, the surface oceans 1000 gt and the deep oceans 37000 gt. About 90 gt is exchanged annually each way between the atmosphere and the ocean.

I am looking to see whether the following hypotheses might be something like correct.

a. Due to changes in temperature, surface oceans exchange CO2 with the atmosphere resulting in a 6 month lag due to mixing time etc. The quantity of surface ocean divided by the 90 gt/a transfer rate gives 11 years, but the definition of surface might not correctly fit the exchange of CO2.

b. Due to changes in temperature over much longer periods, the deep oceans exchange CO2 with the atmosphere resulting in an 800 year lag due to mixing time etc. Clearly the mixing time for the deep oceans is much longer. I have seen information that indicates that a time of the order of a thousand years is to be expected so that this fits well. The 90 gt/a exchange rate divided into the 37000 gt in the deep ocean gives about 400 years which is the right order of magnitude also.

I know that this is partly chemistry and partly oceanography, climate and other things. Please feel free to suggest other places to post this also. I am not interested in debating with the 98% of climate scientists who already know the answer.

What is not clear to me is how fast a chemical solubility reaction happens at a water/gas interface, especially one that has ocean waves in it. Also, how fast the water mixes with itself and dissolved gases move to greater depth.

Although I have suggested this idea over quite some years I have never heard of other people having done so. I thought that this was not rocket science and that surely chemists would have told climate scientists by now.

Comments please?